Southern Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its energy journey. With abundant natural resources and a growing demand for sustainable power, the region has the potential to redefine its energy landscape. While historically reliant on coal and fossil fuels, the tide is turning as countries increasingly invest in renewables. However, challenges persist, from infrastructure gaps to financing barriers. The transition, though complex, is an opportunity to create a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy future.

The Shift Towards Renewables

Between 2012 and 2022, Southern Africa added 27 GW of new energy capacity, with renewable energy sources (RES) accounting for 28% of the region’s total electricity mix in 2022. Hydropower, largely concentrated in Zambia, Mozambique, and Angola, remains dominant, while wind and solar are almost exclusively found in South Africa. Despite this growth, coal continues to drive 34% of the region’s total installed capacity, with South Africa leading coal-fired generation.

Encouragingly, South Africa is emerging as a renewable energy leader, with 6.4 GW of solar power under development and 0.7 GW under construction, alongside 3.5 GW of wind energy under development and 1.5 GW under construction. Forecasts for 2023 and 2024 indicate a continued decline in coal reliance, underscoring the untapped potential for renewables to bridge the energy access gap.

Climate Change: A Looming Threat

Climate change poses a significant threat to Southern Africa’s water, food, and energy security. Altered weather patterns and rising temperatures have led to erratic rainfall, worsening crop production, and increasing vulnerabilities for smallholder farmers. In Zimbabwe’s semi-arid regions, farmers struggle to adapt to unpredictable rain patterns, leading to crop failures and heightened food insecurity.

The crisis extends beyond agriculture. The Okavango Delta in Botswana, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, faces severe water stress due to shifting rainfall patterns, which threatens its unique ecosystem and biodiversity. Meanwhile, urban areas are increasingly experiencing water shortages caused by prolonged droughts and groundwater overuse, further emphasizing the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies.

Electricity Access: A Decade of Progress

Over the past decade, Southern Africa has made significant strides in expanding electricity access, though much of this progress has been concentrated in urban areas. Countries like Botswana have seen remarkable growth, with electricity access rising from 58% in 2013 to 76% in 2022. Similarly, Lesotho nearly doubled its electrification rate, increasing from 27% to 50% over the same period.

While rural electrification remains a challenge, some nations have taken notable steps forward. Lesotho, Eswatini, and São Tomé & Príncipe have led the way, expanding electricity access in rural areas by 23%, 30%, and 24%, respectively. However, access remains uneven across the region. As of 2022, only four countries, South Africa, Eswatini, Botswana, and Namibia, exceed the Sub-Saharan African average of 51.4% for total electricity access.

Despite these gains, millions remain without reliable energy, particularly in remote communities. Expanding off-grid and decentralized solutions will be essential in bridging this gap and ensuring that Southern Africa's energy transition is truly inclusive.

The Road Ahead: A Call to Action

The time to act is now. Unlocking strategic partnerships between the private and public sectors is crucial to fostering renewable energy development at scale. Mobilizing public-private partnerships (PPPs) can help bridge resource gaps and unlock private sector expertise, innovation, and financing for large-scale projects. Public funds should also be more effectively allocated to accelerate clean energy adoption, as historically, non-renewable energy has received more public funding than renewables.

Regulatory and market frameworks must be strengthened to improve national and regional policies. Establishing cost-reflective tariffs will support more efficient energy systems and encourage accurate investment decisions. Increasing local ownership of energy projects through inclusive policies will empower communities and ensure long-term sustainability. Simplifying licensing and authorization procedures -such as South Africa’s recent removal of the generation licensing cap- will accelerate project implementation and attract investors.

Southern Africa’s lack of widespread fossil fuel infrastructure presents an opportunity to transition directly to a renewable energy-based economy. Industrial policies must support skill development and local manufacturing of renewable energy components to create jobs and long-term economic growth. Investing in off-grid solutions can help bridge the rural-urban energy divide and provide sustainable electricity access.

Strengthening regional governance and policy harmonization is essential to advancing regional integration and fully leveraging the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). Improved transparency in power trading and increased cross-border electricity exchange will enhance energy security and affordability. Countries should also foster collaboration towards the African Single Electricity Market (AfSEM) to maximize continental energy trade potential.

Southern Africa has everything it needs to lead Africa’s energy transformation: abundant resources, emerging markets, and a growing commitment to sustainability. By prioritizing renewables, fostering innovation, and ensuring inclusive policies, the region can set a global example for a just and sustainable energy transition. Investments in clean energy infrastructure, workforce development, and regional cooperation will be crucial in shaping a future where every citizen has access to affordable and reliable electricity.

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